Democrats Have Big Aspirations for the Senate, but Polls Have Disappointed Them Before
For the Democratic Party, there is a lot riding on these crucial US mid-term elections.
An unpopular Republican president in history, an American populace discontented with soaring food and bill costs and months of favourable surveys suggest a good night for them on Tuesday.
Polls indicate Democratic candidates are ahead in more than the 218 seats needed to take control of the lower chamber of Congress, the House of Representatives. They are tied or just ahead in critical Senate races.
A recent New York Times survey showed the South Carolina Senate race, in a state Donald Trump won by 18 percentage points in 2024, as a tie. Democrats are leading in Texas, Kansas and Maine, according to recent CNN polls. But are the polls correct?
Public opinion surveys have often been off the mark in recent US political history, even those taken just days before an election. Trump exceeded expectations on his approach to White House victories in 2016 and 2024. Most polls projected Democrat Joe Biden to win by a comfortable margin, but he suffered a narrow loss in 2020.
Polls earlier this year had shown Democrat Abdul El-Sayed could win Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary by double digits. One percent instead. In Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary the contender with a polling lead approaching 20 points lost by a fraction of a percent.
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