Strait of Hormuz Traffic Drops Sharply Amid Prolonged Iran War

Six months into the Middle East war, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains largely paralyzed, with thousands of sailors stranded in the Gulf and commodity carrier traffic still well below normal levels.

Before Iran blocked the strait in response to joint US-Israeli strikes in February, roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports passed through the waterway. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have also warned of a 1,400-square-kilometer “danger zone” where mines may be present.

After Iran closed the strait on March 1, commodity carrier traffic collapsed to an average of just 10 transits per day, compared with a daily average of 95 in February, according to an AFP analysis of data from maritime tracker Kpler. A June agreement between the US and Iran briefly lifted traffic to 36 transits per day, but numbers fell back to an average of 15 following the resumption of hostilities on July 8, continuing through August 22.

The routes ships use have also shifted dramatically. Before the war, vessels crossed the strait freely along a central corridor recognized by the International Maritime Organization. Now, two distinct paths exist: one to the north near the Iranian coast — the only route approved by Tehran — and another to the south, running between the Omani coast and areas potentially mined. During a relatively calm stretch between June 17 and July 7, an average of nine ships per day used the Iranian route and eight used the Omani route, with the remainder passing through unidentified paths or the traditional IMO corridor.

Since the ceasefire collapsed on July 8, two-thirds of transits have become untraceable, or “dark,” compared with less than one percent before the war, according to Kpler. These are vessels whose exact routes cannot be confirmed due to disabled transponders, jammed signals, or gaps in satellite coverage.

The human toll of the disruption remains significant. Roughly 6,000 sailors and 500 ships have been stranded in the Gulf since the conflict began, the IMO told AFP. The organization said discussions are ongoing to establish a secure maritime route, though progress depends on broader de-escalation in the region. An IMO initiative launched in June to evacuate more than 11,000 stranded seafarers was suspended shortly after it began, following an attack on a vessel. Over the past six months, at least 20 sailors and dockworkers have been killed in incidents or attacks tied to the conflict, according to the IMO.