Yemen’s Fragmentation: A Growing Risk to Regional Stability
Yemen’s political landscape is shifting at a dizzying pace, threatening to fracture an already fragile nation. Recent unilateral moves by the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in the critical governorates of Hadramout and Al-Mahrah represent more than local power plays—they are a dangerous gamble with the future of Yemen and the stability of the entire region. These actions, taken without the consent of Yemen’s internationally recognized Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) or coordination with the Arab Coalition, risk plunging the country into a new cycle of conflict.
From Riyadh, the position is clear and consistent. Saudi Arabia has worked tirelessly to preserve calm in these eastern regions, steering them away from military escalation and toward peaceful dialogue. In a direct bid to contain the crisis, the Kingdom, in coordination with the United Arab Emirates and the PLC, dispatched a joint negotiation team. The objective was straightforward: facilitate the withdrawal of STC forces and transfer military sites to the legitimate National Shield Forces. This is a measured, diplomatic approach aimed at de-escalation.
Despite this, the STC has persisted in a confrontational posture, seemingly indifferent to the severe consequences. This stance not only undermines Saudi-led mediation efforts but directly challenges the Kingdom’s steadfast support for the PLC and Yemen’s legitimate government. Saudi Arabia’s commitment is not merely rhetorical; it is manifested in continuous political, economic, and developmental support. The vision is to shepherd Yemen from the shadows of a devastating war into an era of peace, prosperity, and regional integration—a reflection of the Kingdom’s profound religious, political, and economic responsibilities.
A Blatant Violation and a Dangerous Parallel
From this vantage point, the STC’s unilateral actions in Hadramout constitute a blatant violation of Yemen’s agreed transitional framework. They sabotage the legitimacy of the recognized government, threaten a fragile peace, and jeopardize the entire political process. Perhaps most alarmingly, they echo the very tactics of the Houthi militias—using force to alter facts on the ground, thereby creating a dangerous parallel that fractures Yemen from multiple directions.
The necessary path forward is unambiguous. The STC must withdraw its forces from Hadramout and Al-Mahrah to restore the status quo ante. This is not a punitive measure but an essential step to safeguard national security, prevent further military flare-ups, and preserve the possibility of a unified political solution.
The Southern Cause: For Dialogue, Not Division
It is crucial to distinguish between method and cause. Saudi Arabia has consistently affirmed that the southern issue is a legitimate concern—a just cause enshrined in the outcomes of Yemen’s National Dialogue. It must be addressed in any comprehensive future political settlement, reflecting the true aspirations of all southern Yemenis. However, this cause cannot be reduced to the ambitions of any single faction or leader, such as Aidarous Al-Zubaidi. The future of the south must be determined through inclusive dialogue, not through unilateral seizures of territory that preempt and poison that dialogue.
The message to the separatists must be one of sober reason: partitioning Yemen will not bring peace. It will sow the seeds of future wars, embolden extremist actors, and create a permanent threat to regional and international stability. As Western and American policymakers understand all too well, the fires ignited in Yemen do not remain within its borders. The current trajectory of fragmentation risks creating a vortex of instability that will draw in the entire region. The choice is between recklessness and responsibility—the hope remains that all parties choose the latter, for Yemen’s sake and for our own.
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