Why Israeli Recognition of Somaliland Is Seen as a Regional Risk
A single diplomatic move has sent shockwaves from the Red Sea to the African Union headquarters. Israel’s formal recognition of Somaliland as an “independent and sovereign state” is more than a bilateral handshake; it’s a geopolitical gambit with ripple effects that threaten to destabilize an already fragile region.
For over three decades, Somaliland has existed in a state of limbo. Since declaring independence from Somalia in 1991, it has built a relatively stable, self-governing republic with its own currency, military, and passports. Yet, despite its de facto independence, not a single UN member state had granted it de jure recognition—until now.
Why This Feels Like an Attack
The reaction from Mogadishu was immediate and fierce. Somalia’s government condemned the move as a “deliberate attack” on its sovereignty. This sentiment was echoed powerfully by the African Union, a body built on the sacrosanct principle of respecting colonial-era borders. The AU “firmly rejects” the recognition, warning it “risks setting a dangerous precedent with far-reaching implications for peace and stability across the continent.”
For Somalia, struggling to assert federal authority and combat Islamist insurgencies, this is a profound blow. It undermines a core narrative of national unity and injects a volatile new element into its most sensitive political wound. Close allies like Turkey and Egypt were quick to voice full support for Somalia’s territorial integrity, highlighting the diplomatic isolation Israel’s move creates for itself in certain quarters.
The Israeli Calculus: Strategy Over Sovereignty
Behind Prime Minister Netanyahu’s congratulatory phone call to Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi lies a clear strategic blueprint. Analysts point to the Red Sea as the key.
Somaliland occupies a critical coastline along the Gulf of Aden, a chokepoint for global shipping. For Israel, securing a friendly ally in this location offers significant advantages. It provides a potential listening post and strategic partner near Bab el-Mandeb, a vital sea lane. Crucially, it could offer a foothold for operations against threats like the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, who have previously launched attacks toward Israel.
By framing the recognition “in the spirit of the Abraham Accords,” Israel signals its intent to continue building alliances with Muslim-majority nations, even unconventional ones, to break regional isolation. For Somaliland’s leadership, desperate for any opening to the world, Israel’s offer is a historic lifeline and a chance to claim a place on the map.
The Uncharted Risks
The celebratory crowds in Somaliland’s capital, Hargeisa, underscore what’s at stake for its people: a longed-for step toward ending economic isolation. However, the regional risks are immense.
- Precedent and Fragmentation: The AU’s fear is palpable. Africa has numerous simmering separatist movements. Granting recognition to a breakaway region, against the wishes of the central government, could encourage other movements, potentially unravelling the continent’s hard-won, border-based stability.
- Escalating Tensions: This move pours fuel on the fire of an existing dispute. It follows a recent deal between Somaliland and landlocked Ethiopia for port access, which already infuriated Somalia. Israel’s entry adds another major external player, complicating diplomacy and raising the potential for proxy conflicts.
- Undermining Regional Diplomacy: It places countries like Egypt, Turkey, and Arab states of the Gulf in a difficult position, forcing them to choose between principles of sovereignty and complex regional rivalries. It may also further strain Israel’s recent, delicate outreach efforts in Africa, which have been hampered by the war in Gaza.
In essence, Israel has not just recognized a territory; it has thrown a stone into the hornet’s nest of Horn of Africa politics. While it gains a potential strategic partner, it has ignited a diplomatic firestorm that challenges a foundational rule of the African order. The coming weeks will test whether this gamble leads to a new bilateral partnership or becomes a catalyst for broader regional conflict. The world is watching to see if this unprecedented recognition becomes a door opener or a dangerous breach.
Also Read:
Turkiye Arrests 115 Suspected Daesh Members to Strengthen National Security
Last Christians Come Together in the Ruins of Quake-Hit Antakya
