Jobs Report Reveals 119,000 New Jobs and a Stronger Labor Market

After a record 44-day government shutdown that created a blackout of official economic data, a long-delayed report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics has finally brought the labor market back into focus. The snapshot it presents is one of surprising resilience: the U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, a figure more than double what economists had forecast.

This report, while a historic snapshot from months ago, reveals a labor market that was on firmer footing than feared just as the political impasse began. More importantly, it provides a crucial baseline for understanding the complex economic currents now shaping everything from Federal Reserve policy and consumer confidence to the stability of the housing market.

The Data Drought Ends: A Stronger-Than-Expected Snapshot

The September jobs report, released in late November, ended a critical information vacuum. Its key findings painted a nuanced picture of the pre-shutdown economy:

• Job Growth Beat Expectations: With 119,000 new nonfarm payrolls, hiring significantly outpaced the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 50,000.
• A Revised, Weaker August: The previously reported modest gain for August was revised down to a loss of 4,000 jobs, highlighting the volatility and uncertainty present before the shutdown.
• The Unemployment Rate Ticked Up: The rate edged higher to 4.4%, its highest point since October 2021. However, a broader measure of underemployment actually decreased to 8%.
• Wage Growth Moderated Slightly: Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% for the month and 3.8% from a year ago, a pace that was slightly cooler than forecast.

Economists were quick to contextualize the data. Daniel Zhao of Glassdoor noted the report showed “resilience,” but cautioned that “these numbers are a snapshot from two months ago and they don’t reflect where we stand now”. The data revealed familiar sectoral trends: strong gains in health care (+43,000) and food services (+37,000) were offset by losses in transportation and warehousing (-25,000) and continued declines in federal government employment.

The Fed’s Balancing Act: Between Labor Resilience and Inflation

This jobs report landed directly in the midst of a delicate policy debate at the Federal Reserve. In the months leading up to its December meeting, the Fed was navigating without its usual flow of data, with officials noting the difficulty of setting policy in the dark. The September snapshot, showing a still-resilient labor market, became a key piece of evidence.

When the Fed announced its decision on December 10, it framed the action as a “risk management” move. The official statement acknowledged that “job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up,” but also that “inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated”. By lowering the federal funds rate by a quarter point, the Fed signaled a shift in focus toward managing downside risks to employment, even while affirming its commitment to returning inflation to 2%.

Analysts at BCA Research interpreted this as a strategic cut that does not mark a “surrender on inflation,” noting that monetary policy remains restrictive and that some inflation drivers, like tariff-induced goods prices, are beyond the Fed’s direct control.

Connecting the Dots: Jobs, Credit, and Housing

The health of the labor market is the bedrock of consumer confidence and spending. Recent data on consumer credit suggests households, while cautious, are exhibiting stability. According to the Federal Reserve, consumer credit growth has been modest, with revolving credit (like credit cards) growing at a 4.9% annual rate in October.

This aligns with findings from TransUnion, whose Q2 2025 report showed a consumer credit market characterized by “measured growth.” Credit card originations and balances grew at a steady 4.5% year-over-year, while serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) actually declined. This combination suggests that while consumers are using credit, they are doing so in a controlled manner, likely supported by ongoing employment income.

The ripple effects extend directly into the housing market, where affordability remains a central challenge. The jobs report provides the “secure in their jobs” foundation that realtors say is critical for buyer confidence. However, the latest housing trends show a market in a hesitant equilibrium. According to Realtor.com, inventory has grown for 25 straight months, but buyer activity is “subdued,” with homes taking longer to sell and national median list prices dipping slightly year-over-year.

A telling trend is the surge in “delistings”—sellers pulling their homes off the market without a sale. The delisting rate in 2025 is the highest on record, indicating a standoff between seller price expectations and buyer willingness or ability to pay. This frustration is redirecting demand, creating “refuge markets” as cost-conscious buyers flock to more affordable metros, reshaping the geographic landscape of U.S. real estate.

Looking Ahead: A Return to Data in an Uncertain Landscape

The delayed September report was the first step back to normalcy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced it will release combined jobs data for October and November on December 16, after the Fed’s December meeting. This will finally provide a more current, though condensed, view of the labor market’s trajectory through the fall.

What the September snapshot ultimately reveals is an economy at a crossroads. The labor market demonstrated underlying strength, giving the Fed room for a preventative rate cut aimed at sustaining growth. Consumers, while wary, are managing their finances without significant distress. The housing market, however, remains stalled by the high costs of money and homes, waiting for a more decisive improvement in affordability.

The resilience shown in September is a foundation, but not a guarantee. The coming months will test whether that foundation is strong enough to support continued growth, or if the headwinds of inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and market recalibration will lead to a slower pace in the new year.

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